


Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies, Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director and Alexander Titov, Senior Expert at the Institute for Energy and Finance summed up the outcomes of the year and shared their expectations for the Russian oil, gas and coal industries future in comments to Forbes.
The low production strategy that OPEC+ has been following in recent years is, in fact, the only thing that prevents a significant drop in global oil prices today, Alexey Gromov notes.
According to Gromov, Russia will strongly support OPEC+ initiatives to limit production in order to maintain a level of world oil prices that is comfortable for the budget. Gromov believes that if the price falls below $70 per barrel, Western countries will threaten to lower the price cap imposed on Russia and, consequently, reduce the federal budget revenues.
In 2025, the Russian oil and gas industry may face new challenges, in particular, related to the coming to power in the United States of the new administration headed by Donald Trump.
Among such risks, Gromov cites the prospect of lowering the price cap for Russian oil and petroleum products."So far, we cannot say that Russia's relations with the United States will be easier to build than in the last four years," Gromov believes. "Most likely, the risks of further tightening of sanctions pressure on Russia will increase."
According to Alexey Belogoryev, in 2024, gas production in Russia could increase by 7%, or by 45 billion cubic meters. by 2023, to 682 billion cubic meters, while not reaching about 80 billion cubic meters before the peak level of 2021.
Belogoryev expects that in 2025, production will also increase, but only slightly, most likely by 2-3 billion cubic meters per year. The sharp reduction in Ukrainian gas transit will be offset by bringing the Power of Siberia to its designed annual capacity and increasing supplies to Central Asia, he believes.
Alexander Titov, a senior IEF expert, told Forbes that his assessment is closer to Novak's than the IEA's.
Therefore, in his opinion, in 2025, due to the low base of 2024, both the growth of the industry and its stabilization at the same level are possible. According to Titov, infrastructural problems with Russian Railways affect coal exports much more than sanctions. And among the main risks for Russian coal miners, which may lead to a reduction in both exports and production in 2025, Titov cites an increase in production and imports from China. In addition, the growth of supplies from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa may negatively affect, in which case it will be even more difficult for Russian coal to compete. Another risk is a change in priority for coal transportation via Russian Railways, which may lead to a reduction in its export."It seems to me that 2024 was a very weak year for the Russian coal industry, as low coal prices converged in the first half of the year, and problems with its transportation through the Russian Railways network worsened in the second," he says.



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