HomeMediaMedia PublicationsAnalyticsThe Russian gas export to the EU will grow, but it is not clear when

The Russian gas export to the EU will grow, but it is not clear when

27 December 2022

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave an interview to the Oil and Capital magazine on the results of 2022 and prospects for 2023 for Russian gas exports.

On exports to the EU: Germany does not rely on Russian gas in 2023

“Gazprom is confident that exports to the EU countries will partially recover, to about 60 billion cubic meters. If it remains at the current level (through Ukraine), it will not exceed 25-30 billion cubic meters. It is assumed that supplies can be doubled from the current level. There are such sentiments. But I'm not sure if we're talking about next year. Since political relations between Moscow and Brussels have not yet normalized, the likelihood of using the Nord Streams, even if we disregard the difficulties of their repair, is not very high, as is the use of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.

About prices: everyone understood that you can live without Russian gas

Thanks to favorable weather conditions, especially in October-November, the EU managed to greatly improve the overall gas balance due to the accumulation of UGS and a very late start of the heating season. This year in Europe, it started on November 14, although usually it is necessary to drown from October 10-31. As of the end of December, UGS stocks remain at the level of 83%, which is a lot for this time of the year. At the same time, on December 25, there was even a transition of a number of UGS facilities to gas injection, which is completely uncharacteristic.

What will happen next with the weather is difficult to predict. But, in any case, due to large accumulated reserves and a sharp reduction in consumption, as well as a stable supply of LNG, passing through this heating period no longer looks like such a difficult task, as it was thought in August-September, when there were panic moods in the market.

The Turkish hub: the tidbit is the domestic market of Turkey

The Turkish domestic market is the tidbit of what the Turkish hub can offer, as much as 60 billion cubic meters per year. This is the largest market in the region, there are no larger markets nearby. All the rest - Italy, Germany, partly Austria - are far removed. 

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