Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, commented to the Izvestia newspaper on the situation at the European gas market and the expected additional revenues of the Russian budget.
“Currently, the prices at which Gazprom supplies gas to Europe are tied to prices at hubs,” Marcel Salikhov explained. - True, to a greater extent, they are focused not on current spot prices, but on prices month-ahead (delivery in a month) and forwards (delivery for the next quarter, season or year).
Salikhov added that deliveries to neighboring countries are carried out at prices lower than European ones and do not directly depend on them.
- Therefore, the effective export prices for pipeline gas are lower than TTF prices. For example, according to the Federal Customs Service, in July 2021 (the latest available data at present), the effective export price of pipeline gas was $ 245 per thousand, while the spot price for TTF for the same period of time was $ 466 per thousand.
“With such a rise in prices, the proceeds from the export of pipeline gas will increase by $ 1.7-1.8 billion per month, and the cost of LNG exports will increase by about $ 300-350 million per month,” Marcel Salikhov added. - It can also be expected that prices for chemical products and fertilizers will increase simultaneously, which will also affect the revenue of these sectors. Thus, the revenue of Russian exporters will increase by at least $ 2 billion per month.
- We believe that if the current gas prices remain in the IV quarter of 2021, the average effective export price of pipeline gas will be $ 490 thousand compared to $ 183 per thousand cubic meters in the IV quarter of 2020, Salikhov calculated. - Higher prices together with an increase in the physical volume of exports will lead to the receipt of $ 18-20 billion in additional revenue.
According to Marcel Salikhov, the budget directly receives 30% of the value of pipeline gas exports through the export duty.
- Thus, only due to this tax, the budget receives an additional $ 5.5-6.0 billion in additional income in the IV quarter of 2021. Additional income will be associated with additional income tax due to the growth of Gazprom's profits. We believe that Gazprom's net profit this year will exceed 2 trillion rubles (in the first half of the year, the company's net profit amounted to 529 billion rubles). If Gazprom directs half of its profits to dividends, then the payments could amount to about 1 trillion rubles. The state controls half of the company's capital, so it can expect to receive about 500 billion rubles.
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