The West is preparing to impose restrictions on Russian oil products: what will it lead to

Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the introduction of a double "price ceiling" for Russian petroleum products.

From the point of view of international trade in petroleum products, Russia is primarily a major exporter of diesel fuel and heating oil, Alexey Belogoryev told Forbes.

"This explains why the double price ceiling is based on the markets of these petroleum products, ignoring, for example, gasoline or jet fuel markets," the analyst says. — The option with a certain single marginal price for petroleum products was initially impassable, since fuel oil costs about 2.2 times cheaper than diesel fuel."

Combining motor fuels into one group is not so critical, Belogoryev believes. Although diesel fuel in Rotterdam has recently been more expensive than motor gasoline and cheaper than jet fuel, the differences in their prices are only 5-10%.

"The European embargo itself means that Russian companies will have to actively dump in order to compete for market niches in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America," Belogoryev says. — Starting from February 5, the failure in exports caused by the embargo may amount to 0.8 million barrels per day or more. Unlike the drawdown of oil exports in December, which in many ways has already been won back, the prospects for redirecting the falling volumes of petroleum products to other markets are very vague. This means a reduction in oil refining. The oil that is not in demand by it can theoretically be exported."

China and partly the countries of the Middle East can stop the risks of a physical shortage of petroleum products, especially diesel fuel, the expert believes.