A virus attacks: the mutated COVID-19 drops oil prices

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute commented to News.ru on the current and future dynamics of world oil prices.

During the first wave of COVID-19, flights were also restricted, but the virus still spread quite quickly around the world. Most likely, the new strain has also already reached other countries, Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics says. According to him, now there is a kind of race between vaccination and the spread of the second wave.

When news of COVID-19 vaccines hit the market, the notion reigned in financial markets that the coronavirus could be forgotten. But such a charge of optimism could not exist forever, there should have been some news that would have cooled him. So there was a message about a new type of virus in the UK.

The coronavirus is not a history passed through, the expert warns. There will be more difficulties with the use of vaccines and with their delivery. And the news from London is just the first sign of future problems.

The market has already realized that there are vaccines, and mass vaccinations during 2021 have already been priced in. Economic support measures in the US were also expected. Confirmatory news has little effect on quotes. It is strongly influenced by what happened unexpectedly, - Marsel Salikhov explains.

The fall in oil prices affected the ruble, although the current level of quotations is already quite high. With prices around $ 50 per barrel, the ruble should be stronger. But he is now under pressure from fears about introduction of new sanctions by the United States. There were publications about Russian hackers and the fact that the new administration of the White House will impose new restrictions on Russia. This has a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, - the economist said.

Nevertheless, according to the expert, there is no reason for a strong weakening of the Russian currency and, most likely, its rate will remain in the current range - 74–76 rubles per dollar.