Gazprom may lose its influence in the near future

Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Svobodnaya Pressa on the long-term possibilities of Gazprom to maintain influence on the European gas market in the event of a sharp decrease in the share of Russian pipeline gas in the EU imports.

Commenting on the publication of the Egyptian portal NoonPost about Moscow's possible attempts to take control of alternative sources of gas for the EU, Alexey Belogoryev notes that this is a "profoundly naive point of view."

As the expert points out, in reality, Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan are the main alternatives to Russian sources of pipeline gas supplies to Europe: “None of these sources Gazprom will definitely be able to control. The article also mentions the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, but this is a very hypothetical project, which, if implemented, will be completed by 2046. But by that time, Europe will no longer need gas. This gas pipeline is rather important for the gasification of West African countries. That is, in fact, this is a regional project. Indeed, Gazprom wants to participate there, but its interest is purely related to the export of design and construction services, in which Gazprom has competence.”

The expert admits that, purely theoretically, Gazprom can enter into some gas liquefaction projects in foreign countries, however, in his opinion, this is not so simple:

“There is a lot of competition for good projects with economic efficiency, in addition, the operators of these projects are the same transnational European and American companies that, under the current conditions, clearly do not want to see Gazprom as their partner and will not let it into these projects. And investing in completely new projects in developing countries can be quite risky.”