The Threat from the North: Europe wants to further restrict the transportation of Russian oil

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the statement by a group of EU countries on tightening control over the "shadow fleet" activities in EU territorial waters.

For Russia, Alexey Gromov says, a similar policy of the European authorities in the Mediterranean would be much more sensitive, where Russian oil cargo is mainly transshipped on larger tankers, which are most often sent to India and belong to legal shipowners. In particular, the cargo is handled in the Egyptian Port Said area.

"At the moment, we do not see any fundamental pressure on the shadow fleet involved in the transportation of oil cargo from Russia," Gromov says.

The countries that signed this declaration simply notified that they would be guided by the current norms of maritime law, which actually allow the inspection of tankers that are conditionally considered vessels without citizenship, changing the flag or having forged documents. But, he recalls, the rules of the law of the sea do not provide for any other operations, such as the seizure of ships and the confiscation of goods.

But if the inspections become widespread, the cost of freight and intermediary services may increase, including for Russian companies, Gromov adds.

Since prices below the cap give Russian exporters the right to conclude contracts for oil transportation with European cargo carriers, companies from Malta, Cyprus or Greece, the share of European carriers and ships flying the Russian flag will increase, and the share of gray, or "dark" ships is likely to decrease, the analyst says.

At the same time, Gromov notes, Russia's ability to ensure unhindered passage of ships is limited.