Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the long-term consequences of the crisis in the Persian Gulf for the global LNG market.
Alexey Belogoryev believes that the total loss of LNG supplies in 2026-2030 will be higher – they will amount to 140-150 billion cubic meters, even if the Strait of Hormuz is fully unblocked during June.
Currently, only Russia has free gas liquefaction capacity, but it is impossible to quickly bring them to the market due to sanctions, Belogoryev emphasizes.
He assumes an increase in supplies from the Yamal LNG project by 2-3 million tons in 2026. According to him, shipments from the plant increased by about 3% year-on-year in March and April. The planned increase in supplies to China from Arctic LNG – 2 also continues, but its pace remains within the February expectations, the expert adds.
In the long term, the crisis in the Persian Gulf is a suddenly opened strategic window of opportunity for Russia to partially replace Qatari LNG in South, Southeast and East Asia, Belogoryev emphasizes. The realization of these opportunities will depend on the ability to overcome sanctions pressure, eliminate fleet shortages and marketing, he concludes.
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