Alexey Gromov commented to the Business FM radio station on the prospects for further growth in world oil prices amid expectations that the EU countries will impose an embargo on Russian oil supplies.
The price of Brent could jump to $185 if the EU imposes an oil embargo. This forecast leads by JPMorgan, writes Bloomberg.
Alexey Gromov, Director for Energy at the Institute for Energy and Finance, comments:
“Despite the unprecedented sales of the strategic oil reserve by the United States and a number of countries that have announced this since April 1, we see that prices have reacted relatively weakly. And in the current situation, no embargo on Russian oil has been introduced. If it is introduced, against the backdrop of current problems with the supply, it could provoke a rise in prices. We are not as alarmist as JPMorgan, but a rise in prices to $140-150 and maintaining such a high level over the next few months is quite likely, because we see not only unwillingness, but also the technical impossibility of Saudi Arabia to sharply increase oil production, thereby destroying the OPEC + agreement, which Saudi Arabia categorically does not want to do. The second is the lack of clear progress in lifting sanctions against Iran. And thirdly, we see that there are additional problems in the market, in terms of supply, they are associated with unstable regions, such as Libya. Today, production in Libya is significantly reduced, which again affects the mood of oil traders and prices. Turkey has launched its special military operation essentially on the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan, a region that is seen as promising in terms of increasing oil production, and we do not know how it will affect the global market balance.”
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