Trump, oil and gold: what the commodity markets expect from the future US president

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the possible impact on commodity markets of Donald Trump's return to the US presidency.

Alexey Gromov believes that the lack of significant progress in the oil market after Trump's victory was the result of investors' uncertainty about his further actions.

"The market is waiting, because election promises are one thing, and the already meaningful statements of the newly elected US president are quite another. I think the market has been wary of Donald Trump's return so far, waiting to see what statements he will make in his new status," Gromov says.

On the one hand, Donald Trump talks about a "green light" for the growth of oil production in the United States, and on the other hand, it is clear that he will strive to maintain a certain balance in the global oil market in order not to excessively lower prices, but also to prevent their excessive rise, so that the oil shale industry is comfortable, Gromov believes.

"Therefore, I think it is in Trump's interests to keep prices in a comfortable range of $70-75 per barrel for the United States," he notes. "I think Donald Trump's policy may be focused on a slight correction of current prices to about $70, but it is unlikely to be lower, because otherwise he will face the displeasure of those financial and industrial groups that financed his election."