Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Oil and Capital Internet portal regarding the growing risks of sea transportation of Russian oil in anticipation of introducing a “price ceiling” for it.
Alexey Gromov recalled that Russia has already replaced about 70% of supplies to the European market:
According to him, the fundamental question is why Russia will need a shadow fleet?
“The redirection of the remaining 30% is a matter of time. In the coming months, after the entry into force of the European embargo, Russian oil exports will still be reduced from 0.6 to 1 million barrels per day. But taking into account the fact that our raw materials are in demand, and if no action is taken by OPEC + to increase production, then a niche for Russian hydrocarbons will remain, and in the first half of 2023 the country will be able to almost completely compensate for the lost European oil market. The embargo on petroleum products comes into force in February 2023, and there may be problems in this segment, since it is, in fact, impossible to replace the European market for petroleum products with other markets,” the expert said.
“Countries that do not formally join the price restrictions can buy Russian oil at a discount, which may be less than the established “ceiling”, then there will be no formal bans on the use of international shipping companies, for example, Greece, Cyprus, Malta,” Gromov said.
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