Russian LNG strategy amid the European embargo risk

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the prospects for exporting Russian LNG amid a possible loss of the European market.

If there is no comprehensive settlement of relations between the European Union and Russia, then a full or partial embargo is possible in a year, from spring 2026, Alexey Belogoryev believes.

In his opinion, the ability to "realize" all the volumes available for production in Russia depends on three unknowns: how surplus the overall balance in the global LNG market will be at the time of the embargo, what average market prices will be, what is important for demand from poor countries, and, what will happen with the US sanctions.

But even in the case of a less likely scenario, when Europe imposes an embargo, and the United States does not expand or even lift some of the sanctions, "finding new export niches instead of Europe will be a non-trivial task." Russia, outside of Northeast Asia and the European market, is an almost unknown supplier that will still be looked at. At the same time, the average transportation distances will become three times higher, which obviously leads to a shortage of the fleet and additional costs, Belogoryev warns. Therefore, the main target markets are India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the countries of Southeast Asia, the expert believes.