Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the current structure of Russian oil exports.
If the total export of Russian oil by pipeline in 2022 was 80 million tons, then in 2024 it decreased by a third due to supplies to Europe and, apparently, amounted to about 53 million tons, Alexey Gromov says. According to his estimates, shipments to Europe decreased from 39 million tons in 2022 to 13 million tons in 2024.
Thus, in 2022, supplies to China accounted for half of Russia's pipeline oil exports, and in 2024, the same 40 million tons account for about 75%, and the rest falls on the Druzhba oil pipeline system, more precisely, on its southern branch - 13 million tons of oil received by Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic, he notes."In 2022, 40 million tons were sent to China," he says. "Of these, 30 million tons are ESPO, the remaining 10 million tons are transported through Kazakhstan."
Gromov expects that in 2025, supplies from the eastern direction — 40 million tons — will remain unchanged.
Gromov believes that by the end of 2025, Russian offshore oil exports are unlikely to become noticeably less."But for Druzhba, the cuts will continue," he believes. "Supplies to Hungary and Slovakia will continue, but they will stop to the Czech Republic, which is ready to switch to receiving oil from the Alpine pipeline, and about 3 million tons will leave the western direction, and the total volume of exports through the pipeline will be about 50 million tons."
"The reduction may be insignificant, within 10% of the cargo shipments last year volume," he says. "We will have to pay for this with additional price discounts."

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