Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to BaltNews on the likelihood of a gas shortage in the EU during the next heating season.
However, he also stressed that there are several factors that can create certain problems for the Old World. First, it's the weather. No one knows for sure if the next autumn and winter will be as mild as in 2022. If not, then there is still a threat of shortage, LNG alone with the current infrastructure will not solve all the problems. Secondly, a lot depends on the dynamics of demand for gas in the world market. In 2022, it fell by 11% worldwide. If it is the same in 2023, it will become a serious problem.
"In general, I do not see a guaranteed shortage of gas in the EU this winter. UGS stocks by the end of the current heating season will be at about 55% (excluding buffer gas, which is not desirable to pump out from storage facilities). Based on the long-term dynamics of UGS filling, these are not bad results (in this period of the year, the average figures are 25-26%). If the EU countries manage to accumulate 90% by the end of October, then the winter can be spent (if there are no ultra-low temperatures) relatively calmly, LNG supplies (in addition to storage facilities) should be enough," he said.
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications