Rising global oil prices due to the CPC situation

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the impact of the oil supplies decline through CPC on the global oil market.

"The market reaction is emphatically calm, and the price value of this factor is still insignificant. On an annual basis, we are talking, most likely, about a loss of about 50,000 barrels per day, which is not much. However, short-term losses in February-April can reach 300-400 thousand barrels per day. This is a significant amount, but perhaps market participants have not yet fully appreciated the scale of the problem and are counting on a rapid restoration of CPC's capacity," the expert commented.

He noted that in the global market, the estimated losses in the range of 2-3 million tons are small, and they have little effect on the overall balance. But for Kazakhstan, if the repair is really delayed, it threatens to lose 20-25% of the expected annual increase in oil exports.

"And for CPC oil suppliers, which are mainly Western majors producing oil at Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan, the cost losses can reach $ 1 billion, and in the worst case scenario, 1.5 billion. Therefore, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and Eni probably have a lot of unpleasant questions for their governments right now regarding their support for military strikes on the Russian oil infrastructure," the analyst concluded.