Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the prospects for Russian gas exports to Europe until 2027 to InfoTEK.
Alexey Belogoryev believes that Europe has for the most part already abandoned Russian pipeline gas, but it will be difficult to do this completely without serious consequences for the economies of a number of countries.
The expert noted that Gazprom expects to resume supplies to Europe up to 50-60 billion cubic meters per year in 2023, against the current level of about 25 billion cubic meters. According to him, there are prospects for increasing this figure to 70 billion cubic meters of gas per year. "But this will require the normalization of political relations, while I do not see any opportunities for such an increase," he said.
"Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, most likely, will not be able to give up Russian gas even in 2027, in any case, this contradicts their economic interests. As for Italy, there are not such large volumes. It can afford to refuse supplies from Russia by 2025," he said.
In the meantime, only Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, as well as non-EU Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina will continue to import gas from Russia via pipelines. "That's the whole European market that remains. In current volumes in 2023, it will be about 50 billion cubic meters per year, with greater demand in Turkey, this number may grow to 55 billion," the expert stressed.
As for LNG, Belogoryev sees no reason why Europe will officially refuse to export it until 2026. Now Russia supplies this gas to France, Spain and Belgium.
"I think this picture will continue in the coming years. But Germany may join the importers of Russian LNG in the future, since there are quite a few free volumes of LNG on the market now," the expert said.
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