Russia may increase natural gas supplies in the eastern direction

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Rossiyskaya Gazeta on the current state and prospects for Russian gas exports.

The increase in production since the beginning of this year is due to weather factors — a cold first quarter in Russia — as well as an increase in LNG exports and higher gas supplies to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Alexey Belogoryev said.

“It is also possible that Azerbaijan will need Russian gas starting in 2028,” the expert noted. - This country has very ambitious export plans that do not fully align with its production capacity. Therefore, Azerbaijan is approaching a negative balance, which it can offset either with Turkmen gas or with Russian gas.”

It should be noted that, along with the growth in exports to the East, gas supplies to the West may decline next year.

“The EU is introducing an embargo on the import of Russian pipeline gas starting in October 2027, and for now it also applies to its transit. This means that not only Hungary will have to stop purchasing, but Serbia will also not be able to receive Russian gas through Bulgaria," Alexey Belogoryev explained.

In addition to pipeline gas, Russia also supplies liquefied natural gas to the world market. The increase in volumes is due to the operation of the Arctic LNG-2 plant and the start of exporting its products, he adds.

"This year, LNG began to reach Chinese consumers. Therefore, there was a sharp increase in real export shipments, the analyst explained. Plus, the number of gas carriers serving LNG projects is increasing, including those of ice‑class. All of this is leading to a fairly rapid increase in supplies, which will be observed over the next few years”.