Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a detailed comment to the Infotech Internet portal on the increase in the share of Russian vessels engaged in the transportation of Russian oil cargo.
The Institute for Energy and Finance has published statistics on the structure of Russian oil sea exports by tanker-owning countries. As of mid—January, the share of vessels controlled by Russia (directly or through the use of the so-called "shadow fleet") has increased in about two months from 35% to 56%.
Gromov noted that the share of the Russian and shadow fleet will continue to grow. By the end of 2023, it may increase to at least 66% and a maximum of 75%. At the same time, European shipowners will participate less and less in the transportation of Russian oil, although they will not stop providing these services completely.
According to him, the situation will be put on pause in the next few months, as market participants are waiting for the start of the EU embargo on the supply of petroleum products, which will come into force on February 5. In the future, this restriction will increase Russia's problems with oil transportation, but there is a reason for optimism.
The expert noted that by the end of the year the share of Russian vessels and the shadow fleet could grow by about 10%, and added that Russia's potential is even higher, since even now a number of existing tankers are not being used.
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications