Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Pravda.ru on the future prospects for Russia's participation in the OPEC + Agreement.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some OPEC members are exploring the possibility of suspending Russia's participation in the OPEC+ deal, as Western sanctions and EU embargoes "undermine the potential" of Moscow to produce more oil.
Alexey Gromov noted that he considers the information in The Wall Street Journal to be fake.
According to him, the agreement is based on fundamental cooperation between Saudi Arabia, as a leader among OPEC countries, and Russia, as a leader among countries that have acceded to the OPEC + agreement.
“Because if Russia withdraws from the OPEC+ agreement, then the OPEC+ agreement will cease to exist as such,” the expert said.
The expert admitted that the expected introduction of the European oil embargo in relation to Russia will oblige it to reduce oil production by the end of this year.
However, Alexey Gromov believes that this step should not affect cooperation with the OPEC+ countries, because it is a forced response to the sanctions pressure of Western countries.
According to Gromov's estimates, the Russian Federation will reduce production by the end of the year at a level of about 10% of oil production in 2021, which is about 1 million barrels per day, or 50 million tons per year. This is a small reduction, in addition, the Russian Federation is actively restructuring logistics and optimizing oil refining.
“Most likely, there will not be a larger reduction in production, since Russia is already actively reconfiguring the logistics of supplies to alternative markets to European markets, primarily to the markets of Asian countries, India and China. The main impact of European sanctions will apparently fall on the supply of Russian oil products, which will lead to both a reduction in production and an optimization of the utilization of the derivative capacities of Russian refineries,” Alexey Gromov said.
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications