Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the consequences of the proposed export ban on the US diesel fuel for the European and global markets.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. exports of diesel and heating oil in 2025 amounted to 1.25 million barrels per day, or 15% of global exports (Russia typically accounts for 10%, but these volumes have now dropped), Alexey Belogoryev notes. The basis of еру US exports, as well as Russia's, is euro-5 diesel and higher; 1,081 million barrels per day were shipped in 2025, and in January –July 2026, according to the EIA, 1.28 million barrels per day (+24.5% by 2025), or 26.5% of the production in the United States. The export growth in the first seven months of 2026 by 74% against the background of favorable market conditions exceeded production volumes and ensured the current price situation in the United States, he points out.
The main market for diesel exports from the United States is Latin America (74% in 2025 and 65% in January–July 2026), Belogoryev says. According to the expert, the export ban from the US will mainly hit these countries — politically close and critically important for Washington as food suppliers.
In terms of an acute global shortage, the US share in the EU and UK imports is above 50%, and a sharp decline or cessation of supplies will lead to an additional increase in prices and the use of reserves, Belogoryev agrees with Wood Mackenzie.“Therefore, if Trump decides to do so, many buyers there will be granted an exception. This means that the global market will, in fact, lose not everything, but 40–50% of US exports, or 7% of global exports, which is painful but not as critical.”
“But the release of emergency fuel reserves in the EU is inevitable when there is no source of additional supply left to cool the growth of prices on the market,” he explains.
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