A Global oil demand growth forecast

Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise, ISMU HSE, gave a forecast to REGNUM regarding the dynamics of world oil demand.

Currently, one percentage point increase in global GDP increases world oil demand by 0.4-0.5%. Marcel Salikhov, director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the ISMU HSE, told a REGNUM correspondent about this.

“Oil demand will continue to grow significantly in 2022. The increase in world oil demand will amount to 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021, and in 2022 the increase will reach 4.2 mbd, Salikhov said. - The main factors are associated with the preservation of a fairly high growth rate of the global economy, as well as the fact that the subsequent waves of COVID-19 are less and less affecting demand. Currently, one percentage point increase in world GDP increases world demand by 0.4-0.5%. Therefore, the preservation of positive dynamics of world economic growth means an increase in demand for oil. In the longer term, this elasticity can be expected to decline due to the energy transition and the decarbonization policies of many countries.”

However, as Salikhov stressed, these trends will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of demand in 2021-2022.