A forecast to reduce oil production in Russia by 20% to 2030

Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Rambler magazine on the likelihood of a reduction in oil production in Russia in the 2020s due to technological sanctions:

“Traditional oil production in Russia is little dependent on Western equipment. Basically, Western technologies are used to extract hard-to-recover oil reserves and for offshore projects. But offshore projects do not play a fundamental role in the total volume of oil production. And by 2030, they will definitely not become a significant factor. And hard-to-recover oil reserves are an important issue. And there are real risks here. Most likely, when Yakov & Partners talks about a 20% reduction in production by 2030, they mean mostly hard-to-recover reserves.”

The expert also spoke about the situation with oilfield services on the Russian oil market.

“Here the Russian market is not exactly autonomous, but it feels quite well. Moreover, far from all Western companies have left it, and the personnel trained by them have mostly remained. Yes, in terms of providing services - from drilling to seismic exploration - there are problems in individual components, but, in my opinion, they are not of a systemic nature," the specialist noted.

At the same time, Belogoryev admitted that without access to Western technologies, by 2030 Russia will experience a decline in oil production.