Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise, National Research University HSE, commented on the future of oil prices to a REGNUM correspondent.
“In 2021, the global oil demand will be about 3 million barrels lower than in 2019,“ Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told to the REGNUM correspondent.
Salikhov also answered the question, whether there is a risk that a sharp drop in oil prices may occur in 2021.
“The main factors are related to how quickly the global economy will recover from the failure in 2020, as well as how effective the OPEC + supply management policy will be,” Salikhov said. - Forecasts of international organizations suggest that global oil demand will still be about 3 million barrels less in 2021 compared to 2019. Thus, recovery to the pre-pandemic level this year can’t be expected. Under these conditions, OPEC + will begin to restore production from the second quarter of 2020, however, the pace and speed of production recovery in the OPEC + countries may strongly affect world prices.”
“Of course, there are such risks. In my opinion, they can be realized in the second half of 2021, and the main reasons may be associated with an increase in production by the OPEC + countries, as well as with the possible lifting of sanctions against Iran, the economist said. "This could increase the supply to the world market, while the dynamics of demand may not be as strong."
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