Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies and Sergey Kondratiev, Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Gazeta.ru on the prospects for completing the Nord Stream 2 certification.
Gazprom will recoup NS-2 even before commissioning
According to Sergei Kondratiev, now the average cost of a thousand cubic meters under Gazprom contracts is about $ 300.
Transit through Ukraine is indispensable
“But even in this scenario, Gazprom will receive a tangible margin of about $ 50 for each thousand cubic meters sold. If the NS-2 downtime continues to keep exchange prices at their peaks, then the monopolist's profit by the beginning of the summer of 2022 will amount to about $ 8-9 billion, "the analyst noted.
According to Aleksey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, the speed of commissioning two lines of the gas pipeline will depend on many factors. First of all, Moscow will have to make a compromise with Berlin regarding the transit status of Ukraine after 2024.
In this situation, Gromov emphasizes, there is no reason to expect the commissioning of two lines of the gas pipeline before September 2022.
“Without maintaining transit through Kiev, it will be possible to put an end to the SP-2 project. This is Scholz's principled position, and Gazprom will have to come to terms with it. The only alternative direction to the EU is now Ukraine. The whole trouble lies in the high rates for pumping, this issue will become a key issue for Moscow and Kiev," the analyst explained.
The perfect deal for Gazprom
The expert added that in such a situation it would be practically impossible for Moscow to do without Ukrainian transit. An acceptable option for Russia would be to prolong the agreement with Kiev until 2030 for pumping 30-35 billion cubic meters per year, subject to rates comparable to European counterparts.
“It is important to understand that no one in the EU will allow Moscow to load SP-2 to its full capacity (55 billion cubic meters - Gazeta.Ru) because of the gas directive. In the best case, Russia should expect the total pumping of two lines in the region of 22.5 billion cubic meters per year. In a certain scenario, this figure may rise to 30 billion, no more, "- Gromov said.
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