"Poland has carved itself." Who will be the main loser from the energy crisis in the EU

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Gazeta.ru regarding the situation on the European gas market.

What will happen to gas prices

According to Aleksey Gromov, prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia are now going down, which has led to returning the first tankers to the European market. However, their arrival at Euro terminals is not expected until early January 2022.

“Until the end of December, the prices of gas futures contracts in Europe are unlikely to drop below $ 1.5 thousand per thousand cubic meters. At the same time, the maximum will not rise above $ 2 thousand. Winter in the EU came early, as in Russia, which will not allow the Europeans to receive additional consignments of fuel from Gazprom. All this adds to the nervousness of traders,” Gromov emphasized.

He also added that the situation is under pressure from the uncertainty regarding the timing of the commissioning of Nord Stream 2. In this regard, only a quick completion of certification now could normalize the stock market crisis.

Europeans are scared off by the cost of gas

In turn, Gromov stressed that the LNG situation could turn sideways for the Europeans. The fact is that as soon as the first tankers arrive at the local terminals, the prices for liquefied gas will really drop, but in the future this will again lead to the fact that the Asian market will again become more attractive for suppliers.

“NOVATEK already had an indicative incident in 2016-2017. The first LNG shipment from the Yamal project was resold three times. First, the party had to go to Asia, then to France (demand and price rose sharply there), and as a result, due to cold weather in the USA, it landed in Boston. This is despite the fact that initially LNG was intended for the French company Total,” Gromov emphasized.