To spit on the ceiling: what will change the price cap on Russian oil

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Izvestia newspaper about the oil price ceiling.

According to Marcel Salikhov, the effect of the price ceiling will be relatively small.

— Firstly, those parameters and conditions for introducing the price ceiling mechanism, which were publicly announced, are rather mild. This indicates that the US is currently not ready to push for the actual implementation of the price cap mechanism. Secondly, according to the results of October, oil production in Russia remained stable at the level of 1.47 million tons per day. Fluctuations in exports and primary refining were insignificant.

However, Russia itself plans not to sell oil to those countries that will adhere to the price ceiling, Salikhov notes. In addition, a very real problem is the shortage of tankers that will be available for the transportation of Russian oil after the ceiling introduction.

“According to our estimates, crude oil exports in 2023 will decrease by 6-8% after the adoption of the price ceiling and the embargo from the EU,” the analyst clarifies.

However, Marcel Salikhov suggested that large Chinese companies are wary of deals that potentially threaten new sanctions.

It is worth noting that so far there has been no talk of sanctions for third countries that do not participate in the price ceiling creation either in the US or in other G7 countries. The problem may be that no one will even want to check it. Salikhov notes that some Middle Eastern and Asian firms can take over the insurance.

— In the current conditions, the world oil market remains in a deficit state. This was facilitated by the decision of OPEC + to reduce production from November. Therefore, the introduction of restrictions on Russia will lead to an increase in prices, which will make it possible to compensate for the decline in volumes,” Marcel Salikhov said.