Pirates of the 21st century: will Europe be able to block the Russian oil transportation

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Mash on the potential impact on Russian oil exports of the EU police measures against transiting vessels of the Russian "shadow fleet".

Ship delays are unlikely to become widespread – it is rather an attempt to "scare" carriers and increase the cost of freight, which means the costs of oil companies, Alexey Belogoryev believes.

"I am almost sure that no one has a real task to massively detain ships with Russian cargo. There is a task to create an unfavorable background, to intimidate in order to reduce the offer of freight, respectively, to increase its cost and potentially reduce the volume of supplies," the source explained to Mashnews.

Russia has two key ports on the Baltic Sea – in Primorsk and Ust-Luga in the Leningrad region. 40-50% of Russian oil shipments go through them. If we theoretically imagine a complete blockade of the Baltic Sea for Russia, the country could lose about 40% of its oil exports. However, according to Alexey Belogoryev, in reality, possible losses due to ship delays will not exceed 2-5% of the total volume of supplies. At the same time, it will not be possible to redirect these raw materials along other routes.

"Everything that is possible has already been redirected. It is impossible to transfer these volumes to the Far East, Novorossiysk has its own problems (in addition to military risks, there are many logistical bottlenecks there), and you cannot send them by rail either. So, if there are interruptions, these will be direct losses in exports and production," the IEF Research Director says.

Despite the harsh rhetoric of the EU leadership, experts believe a complete blockade of ships with Russian oil is impossible.

"Firstly, it would be a clear violation of international maritime law, and secondly, it would lead to a serious escalation, because, in fact, it would be a military blockade, and this is no longer an economic sanction, but a form of warfare. And, accordingly, Russia can respond, at least, by forming military convoys to support the passage of ships," Alexey Belogoryev explained.

In his opinion, it is unlikely that all EU countries would have agreed on such a step.