Sergey Kondratiev, Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a comment to the internet portal Geoenergetika.ru on the prospects for the natural gas transit through the territory of Belarus.
In the next 5-10 years, high demand for Russian gas will remain in Europe, which means that Gazprom will have to use all its routes to the maximum: the Ukrainian and Belarusian corridors, both Nord Streams and the European branch of the Turkish Stream, Sergei Kondratiev predicts.
“After the pipeline is launched, Gazprom will have more opportunities for maneuvering and will be able to choose the optimal route for gas transportation. Taking into account that the target markets of the Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream-2 gas pipelines are similar, it is impossible to exclude the scenario of a slight decrease in the load on the Belarusian gas transportation system,” Sergei Kondratiev, a senior expert at the Institute for Energy and Finance says.
But if a Russian company faces a choice between transit through Ukraine and "Yamal - Europe", then with a greater degree of probability it will prefer the Belarusian direction, the expert notes.
The future of Belarus, as one of the main transit countries for gas from Russia, largely depends on friendly relations between Moscow and Minsk, Sergei Kondratiev draws attention.
“This is a more predictable route. It comes with lower risks. Under such a scenario, of course, the significance and economic role of Yamal - Europe will grow significantly,” he continues.
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