You can't tear gas away from Europe

Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the medium- and long-term prospects for gas production and export in Russia.

Alexey Belogoryev is pessimistic. The bottom, in his opinion, has not yet been reached:

"Yamal LNG and Sakhalin-2 are operating at maximum capacity, the same can be said about Vysotsk. The only increase may be due to the Portovaya LNG plant, which began operation only in September. In general, next year, supplies are likely to stagnate.

The increase is possible no earlier than 2025, when Arctic LNG-2 will be launched. Unfortunately, from the point of view of international forecasts, there are no more expectations in terms of liquefied natural gas. As for the pipeline, the bottom will not be reached this year, since supplies were at a fairly high level in the first half of the year. In 2023, we can expect a decrease of about 20 billion cubic meters. Its total exports will be about 100-108 billion cubic meters and in 2024 it will even slightly decrease.

A return to supply growth is possible from 2025, and the main driver of their increase will be pumping through the Power of Siberia-1. In addition, somewhere in 2026, exports along the Far Eastern route may begin, so the main inflow will be at the expense of China. In the near abroad, stagnation can be expected at best. The main driver of both decline and growth will be Belarus. There are different assessments in the EU. If partial supplies can be restored, of course, there will be an increase, which is not yet included in real forecasts.

In this regard, the overall prospects for gas exports in the next two years look disappointing. In terms of physical supplies, we can reach the level of 2021 in 10 years — not earlier.

In terms of value, the losses, in my opinion, are already irreversible. After all, the European market, along with Japan, was the most tasty morsel in the global gas market. The margin that we received and continue to receive in part there, we will not find anywhere else."