"OPEC may collapse if Saudi Arabia says it doesn't care"

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a wide-ranging interview to Business Online about the situation on the global oil market.

— Marcel Robertovich, on May 1, 2026, the UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+. There are different versions about the reasons for this decision. In your opinion, what were they? Did economic or political factors work?

— I think there were a number of reasons, both economic, political, and related to the conflict in the Persian Gulf. To understand, you need to turn to history. Many countries participate in OPEC, but there are few states that really have an impact. These include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. Iran is also an OPEC member, but it does not fulfill the terms of the agreement, and it does not have quotas.

Why did the UAE decide to withdraw from OPEC? Before the start of the Gulf War, they produced a little more than 3 million barrels per day, but in fact they can produce 5 million. But they could not increase production within the framework of OPEC. In addition, due to the Gulf War and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE produces 1.5 million barrels per day, which is much less than the quota was set. Perhaps they already understood that they wanted to leave the organization, but they were waiting for the right moment. It came in April and was associated with the Gulf War. Because of it, oil prices have risen very much, and the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC has reduced them, but only slightly.

At the moment, the exit of the Emirates does not affect anything, since they are not producing even as much as they can according to the quota, since they cannot export oil. However, in the long term, it is believed that when the Hormuz is unblocked, there will be no restrictions within OPEC+.

— Then what consequences can there be after the UAE leaves?

— Most likely, the organization will continue to exist. Maybe someday the Emirates will reconsider their policy and come back. The main negative now is that, firstly, the UAE can potentially bring 2 million barrels to the market, and this is bad for prices, because there is oil that did not exist. Secondly, the coordination mechanism itself, which everyone is used to when OPEC reduces production, will gradually come to naught. OPEC may collapse if Saudi Arabia says it doesn't care, it has its own plans and objectives, and let the rest figure it out for themselves.

— How do you assess the situation in the Strait of Hormuz? Do you agree that the events caused the most severe energy crisis in the world?

— So far, the crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not comparable to the crises of the 1970s. At that time the OPEC countries imposed an embargo, and because of the Arab-Israeli war they stopped selling oil to Western countries. And the big collapse began. At that time, there was no gasoline at gas stations in Western Europe and the United States. Now there is no such thing, now the countries of Asia and Europe are primarily affected. But so far there is no physical shortage or restrictions on gas stations.