A dangerous fairway

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented for the print version of Expert magazine on modern maritime piracy directed against oil and gas tankers.

After the attack on Arctic Metagaz, Russian gas carriers probably won't risk crossing the Mediterranean Sea in the near future and then using the Suez Canal for supplies to Asia, Alexey Belogoryev suggested. The analyst stressed that this route has been a competitive advantage for Russian LNG over the past few years, as a number of producers, including Qatar, are abandoning logistics through the Houthi-shelled Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden in the Arabian Sea.

"This means that one voyage from the Murmansk region to Beihai, China, and back will now take 80-85 days instead of 60 days. And the average turnover of the vessel will decrease from six to four voyages per year. This will further exacerbate the already acute shortage of the fleet and reduce the attractiveness of the Murmansk transshipment to China, which the Arctic LNG 2 plant has relied on in recent months," Alexey Belogoryev explained. This will also become a problem for redirecting supplies from the Yamal LNG plant from Europe to Asia, he added.

The risks associated with detentions and attacks on tankers carrying Russian oil have already led to an increase in the cost of chartering ships, the analyst stressed. RBC, citing data from the Price Index Center, reported in early January that freight rates for oil transportation increased by 5-63% in 2025, depending on the direction of supply, to an average of $30-79 per ton. "The total additional costs of Urals transportation in 2025, due to these factors, increased by an average of at least $5 per barrel," Belogoryev said.