Maxim Shevyrenkov, Head of the Commodity Market Analysis Center at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the situation at the Russian gasoline market to Forbes.
There are indeed local shortages, but, with the exception of the south of the country, they are mainly caused by excessive demand rather than supply disruptions, Maxim Shevyrenkov says. The current quotas at some gas stations are often reasonable and designed to cool the excessive demand, the expert believes.
At the moment, the capital region is not in danger of a fuel crisis from in trms of physical supplies, Shevyrenkov says. The Moscow region can be supplied by at least two refineries (besides Moscow, RNPK and Slavneft—YANOS), and it is also possible to supply fuel from underutilized capacities of Belarusian refineries. Gasoline from Belarus, of course, will be more expensive, but it is unlikely that there will be no fuel at the gas station, the expert believes.
Belarusian gasoline supplies may grow from the current 60,000 tons per month to 200,000 tons and above, which is more than enough to stabilize the Russian market, Shevyrenkov believes.
Supplies from Asia, in his opinion, are rather a way to calm the market: fuel is expensive there, and its delivery to Russia is not very interesting from a commercial point of view, he says.