Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the "Davydov.The index" magazine on the prospects for oil export and production in Russia in 2023.
"A small increase in oil production is really happening now, but it is of a short-term nature and, indeed, is associated with an increase in crude oil exports. These exports are growing above expectations – Russian companies managed to solve, at least temporarily, the main logistical problems with redirecting oil supplies from Europe to Asian countries and with replacing a significant part of European freight with their own fleet in just one and a half to two months.
As for oil production, it depends not only on oil exports, but also on the volume of oil refining – which, in turn, is strongly tied to the export of petroleum products. And these exports, obviously, will decline after the fifth of February – primarily due to the embargo by the EU countries (and to a lesser extent – in connection with the introduction of a ceiling on prices for petroleum products).
I think that a reduction of 20-25 million tons, if we take only oil, without condensate, can be reasonably said. But there may be a sharper drop. According to some estimates, the depth of the fall in an unfavorable scenario of external demand can be up to about 45-50 million tons per year. But this is still a pessimistic scenario."
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