In November and December, participants in the oil market gambled on the rise in prices, using positive expectations from vaccinations, Alexei Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director for Energy at the Institute for Energy and Finance said. In the first quarter of 2021, he said, we can expect a bearish game and a fairly serious price correction. However, they will not cross the lower psychological limit of $ 38–40 per barrel.
The average annual oil price will be higher than in 2020, but with rather high volatility, says Aleksey Belogoryev.
Oil quotes are expected to be within the range of $ 45-55 per barrel. This leaves two uncertainties. The first is related to the pandemic - the market is still living with optimistic expectations from vaccinations. The second factor is geopolitical: it is unclear whether the new US president will lift sanctions on Iran and whether it will be able to increase production and exports. This could destabilize the OPEC + deal.
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