You won't strangle, you won't kill: how Arctic LNG 2 works despite sanctions

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the current state and prospects of LNG exports from the Arctic LNG 2 plant.

Despite all the differences, Democrats and Republicans in the United States are united in lobbying for the expansion of American LNG and in their desire to eliminate competitors standing in its way, Alexey Belogoryev says.

In 2024, shipments from Arctic LNG 2 went from the beginning of August to the beginning of October, and in total, international trackers recorded eight shipments with a total estimated weight of 446,000 tons, the expert notes.

"However, according to the same data, no cargo was delivered to the buyer until August 2025," he points out. "The ports of destination for supplies were not named, and the transponders on the ships were often turned off."

During winter navigation, which lasts from November to June in this part of the Northern Sea Route, shipments completely stopped due to the lack of ice-class gas carriers, Belogoryev continues.

But then the situation began to improve. In 2025, due to the more favorable ice conditions, shipments began much earlier — at the end of June, and as of September 25, shipments to six vessels with a total weight of 500,000 tons were recorded, the expert says.

"The main difference in 2025 is that China began to accept ships with sanctioned LNG,— Alexey Belogoryev notes. — Unloading in September was carried out with a frequency of one or two ships per week, which is a very intensive pace. I doubt that the decision to start importing from the sanctioned plant was made by the importers themselves at their own risk. They almost certainly got the go-ahead from the country's political leadership, reflecting China's general growing interest in Russian gas as an alternative to American and Middle Eastern LNG."

Due to the expected embargo from the EU, Trump may well not further strengthen sanctions against Russian LNG, since the main thing for the United States now is to squeeze Russia out of the European gas market, which is key for the United States itself, the expert believes.

Achieving the declared capacity of Arctic LNG 2 depends on two unknowns — the deadline for commissioning new ice-class gas carriers and the volume of demand from China, since there are no other buyers willing to risk secondary US sanctions, Belogoryev says.

"In my opinion, the first line of the plant will reach its design capacity no earlier than 2027, the second — no earlier than 2029, the third - in 2030 or later. There is still no certainty about the third line: its launch depends on the availability of a fleet of ice-class Arc7 gas carriers in the future. So far, the prospects are the most vague. In general, the design capacity will be achieved, but with a long-term lag behind schedule."