It didn't happen: Russia wanted to occupy a third of the global LNG market, but there are new sanctions

Marcel Salikhov, president of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the newspaper Novye Izvestia on the prospects for the LNG market development.

"A lot of emphasis (in the draft energy strategy) is placed on the LNG segment. Our goal is 100 million tons of LNG by 2030, and we expect to occupy up to 30% of the global market by 2035. Now, let me remind you, we make up about 7%," Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said. With the announcement of the US sanctions, NOVATEK's Arctic-2 plant under construction will find it very difficult to fulfill the ambitious task of tripling LNG output and reaching 100 million tons in 5 years.

Marcel Salikhov notes:

- Three stages were originally planned for the Arctic-2 project. The equipment was put on the first one and now it is putting into operation. As to the second and third stages it's not fully clear how they will be introduced, because the plant was planned based on certain technological solutions. There are no alternatives, including Chinese ones, there are no Chinese companies that would be able to build LNG plant installations.

The expert says that there is a Russian development "Arctic Cascade". In 2019, one unit was installed for the production of 2 million tons. NOVATEK was very dissatisfied with the quality and chose Western technology. The first installation is working, but the Arctic-2 is planned for 3 lines of 6.6 million. It is unclear how much the Russian line is scaled. If not, then you will have to put 6 installations instead of two. How to solve this problem is unclear.

After the US sanctions introduction, it is clear that neither spare parts for the existing line, nor repairs, nor even new equipment will be possible to purchase.

Obviously, if it is possible to compensate for the losses of the European market, then only in the very long term. To the question whether the sale of liquefied gas can compensate for the loss of the European market and the volume of sales of pipeline gas, Marcel Salikhov gives a direct answer:

- Probably not. This is a very long perspective. Now, due to the loss of supplies to Europe, about 100 billion cubic meters have been lost. To replace such volumes — it should be three plants of the Yamal LNG scale, and now it is unclear what will happen with Arctic-2.

The optimistic forecast given by the expert is 10-15 years.