The most promising car is named amid the fuel situation

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Moskovskaya Gazeta on the imbalance’s prospects at the petroleum products domestic market of in the 3rd quarter of 2026.

The situation with gasoline in July-August 2026 will be tense, but demand for fuel is not expected to cool down yet, Alexey Belogoryev said.

According to the analyst, the main factor influencing the balance of gasoline supply and demand in the Russian market in 2026 is the frequency and nature of unscheduled repairs of primary and secondary refining units at refineries. At the same time, there should be no problems with diesel, except for local logistical ones: there is a huge surplus of diesel fuel in Russia, which is exported, and with such an excess, there is no reason to assume a shortage. But the situation with gasoline is more complicated.

"The market is on the verge of a small deficit and at the same time a small surplus, this is a near-financial condition that is abnormal for the market. Normally, gasoline production should be 10-15% higher than consumption in order to offset systemic logistical problems for Russia and peak demand. But now the supply is almost equal to the demand, and the situation is constantly changing, with production figures jumping both down and up. There is no shortage in the country as a whole, but the regions of the Far East and the South stand apart. The Far East has chronic capacity shortages and dependence on supplies from Eastern and Western Siberia, but these problems can be alleviated by imports from Asia," Alexey Belogoryev explained.

According to him, retail prices generally react more than conservatively to the imbalances developing in certain regions, while the sharp rise in prices, if we do not take into account some southern regions, is due either to the hype that has arisen at gas stations, or to problems in the economy of independent gas stations. The gas stations of vertically integrated oil companies, which provide about 80% of all retail sales, keep prices stable, and there is no price shock that could lead to a noticeable decrease in demand. Nevertheless, an increase in wholesale prices is possible, the expert noted.