Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the risks of a sharp drop in Russian oil refining after the European embargo on the Russian petroleum products supply came into force on February 5, 2023.
The Russian Ministry of Energy currently does not see any grounds for a sharp decline in oil refining in Russia after the EU embargo on the petroleum products supply came into force on February 5.
Alexey Gromov told that according to the Institute's calculations, there will still be a sharp decline in exports, it will last for 2-3 weeks. Then the market will gradually recover.
According to optimistic forecasts, this process will last until the summer of 2023, according to pessimistic forecasts – until the end of the year.
The expert noted that the main impact of the embargo will have on the marginality of Russian petroleum products, and not on volumes, since Russia will have to redirect supplies from close Europe to India and China, which are remote for our country.
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