Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the prospects for reaching a compromise in the EU on the issue of the maximum price level for Russian oil.
Some compromise on the price ceiling can be reached before the end of the week, Alexey Gromov believes.
Poland, according to Gromov, submitted an application to Transneft for the supply of Russian oil in 2023 through the Druzhba pipeline. At the same time, Poland, according to Reuters, is also seeking an EU ban on oil supplied through Druzhba, or at least through the northern part that supplies Poland and Germany. The Polish company PKN Orlen has long-term contracts with Tatneft and Rosneft, the break of which is fraught with serious penalties. If a company has a contract, it is obliged to receive oil according to the “take or pay” principle: if you don’t take it, then you pay anyway. But if the EU declares an embargo, then this will be regarded as force majeure, and the penalty, Gromov explains, can not be paid.
“The decision will be made in any case,” the expert says. - Europeans now need to negotiate; otherwise, if no decision is made, it will hit the political reputation of the EU hard.” Gromov believes that a price ceiling of $60-62 per barrel could be set with an important caveat that the price ceiling could be revised after some time. In this case, the countries will be able to return to the discussion, for example, in three months, respectively, "to voice the real effectiveness of the tool and tweak something in its mechanism."
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