China can consume the falling volume of Russian oil exports to India

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Moskovskaya Gazeta on the dynamics of Russian offshore oil supplies to India and China and the impact of the export alternative on the domestic Russian motor fuels market.

"According to ship tracking data at the end of January 2026, Russian oil shipments in India have already dropped to 1.0-1.1 million barrels per day. The February data is still difficult to interpret due to too much oil (almost 1.9 million barrels per day) at sea without specifying the final destinations - it can be both India and China, or ships are overstocked without the ability to quickly find a buyer. Tentatively and cautiously, we can talk about the stabilization of average monthly supplies to India in February at about 1.2 million barrels per day. The future prospects are a topic of intense discussion. The most likely range of average annual imports for 2026 is from 0.9 to 1.4 million barrels per day, depending on many factors," the expert predicts.

Judging by the current dynamics, China will be able to absorb most of the falling volumes of Russian exports to India, Alexey Belogoryev believes:

"If the average annual sea shipments to China in 2025 amounted to slightly more than 1.3 million barrels per day, then in the first half of February, according to preliminary estimates, they reached almost 2.1 million barrels per day. But the price of this growth is an increase in discounts."

Domestic prices for motor fuels in Russia will continue to rise in 2026, despite the expected decline in world oil prices (while the latter is not due to the Iranian factor), the expert predicts. This is not related to exports, but to general inflation and imbalances in the domestic market, mainly of a regional nature, primarily in the south of the European part of Russia and the Far East. The total refinery capacity in Russia is sufficient to meet domestic demand and exports (even taking into account accidents due to UAV strikes), but geographically they are extremely unevenly distributed. In addition, with seasonal summer price increases, there is often a gap between wholesale and retail prices, which affects the economy of independent gas stations, and the latter can reduce fuel purchases and supplies, Alexey Belogoryev concluded.