Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the outcomes of the Russian oil and gas industry development in 2024.
The main reason is Russia's participation in the voluntary limitation of production under the OPEC+ agreement, Belogoryev explains and predicts a more moderate decrease – by 0.6% to 516 million tons. In his opinion, not only the OPEC+ obligations will have a negative impact on production, but also the expected stagnation of gas production, which will limit gas condensate production.
It is quite natural that the growing domestic demand against the background of a decrease in the production of petroleum products leads to export restrictions, which in 2024 was especially typical for gasoline, the expert explains. In addition to the task of avoiding physical shortages of gasoline, especially Ai-95, measures to regulate the oil products market are aimed at curbing the inflation growth, he noted.
The end of "manual control" of exports may occur only in 2026 in the case of launching a number of new refining complexes aimed at increasing gasoline production, Belogoryev believes.
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