What opportunities does Trump’s political game with fuel open up for Russia?

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a wide-ranging interview to the URA.RU online portal about the consequences of the Russia–US deal on diesel fuel supplies for the global oil market and Russian exports of petroleum products.

— Against the backdrop of high‑level agreements with the United States, Russia has prematurely lifted the ban on diesel fuel exports. What consequences will this decision have for Russia’s oil industry?

— For Russia, this deal is clearly beneficial. Because, even despite the attacks on oil refineries that have not stopped in recent times — which is why restrictions on diesel exports were introduced — the capacity of the refineries is such that this type of fuel is produced in our country with a large surplus. If they produced gasoline only slightly exceeding the steady needs of the domestic market, then diesel fuel is an export commodity.

As a result, when restrictions are imposed on its export, there is a risk of overstocking of oil refineries and petroleum product depots. It is impossible to stop its production, because when gasoline and jet fuel are produced, diesel fuel is also manufactured in any case. And if it cannot be fully sold on the domestic market, surpluses accumulate, which first hinder the refineries operation and then affect logistics.

Therefore, the decision is beneficial from the perspective of the Russian fuel and energy complex functioning.

— How and to what extent will this resumption of exports affect the global diesel fuel market?

— But the volumes in question are not large. Judging by the statements made, the parties have agreed on the immediate supply of 500,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, and then up to 1 million tons more. And it is possible that over the course of six months the total supply volume will reach up to 3 million tons, depending on the capacity of Russian refineries.

However, from Russia’s perspective, there is another important positive aspect: the decision is not a one‑off measure but establishes a six‑month period during which transactions involving diesel fuel will be exempt from US sanctions.