How the conflict in the Middle East affects the global economy

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the nature and consequences of the global oil and gas crisis in March 2026, and the short- and long-term benefits and risks it brings to Russia.

The situation is reminiscent of the "oil shock" of the 1970s, with supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Suez Canal, Alexei Belogoryev notes.

If the current conflict continues for another two weeks or more, it will lead to a severe crisis in offshore oil and gas logistics, the expert says. The 1973 crisis affected 10% of global oil consumption. But since then, the Persian Gulf countries have also become major exporters of petroleum products, LNG and fertilizers, the expert points out. According to him, the global market may miss up to a third of oil and gas traffic, which is comparable to the effect of the coronavirus epidemic, but with the opposite effect – a decrease in supply rather than demand.

According to Belogoryev, it is important for the United States to end the war in the spring, before the summer peak of gasoline and jet fuel consumption in the country and the world. If oil prices remain above $80/bbl, this will create a noticeable inflationary effect ahead of congressional elections, he explains.

In the short term, the conflict creates benefits for major oil exporters, including Russia, due to a reduction in consumer stocks of raw materials and rising prices, experts say. This has a positive effect on the filling of the federal budget and the financial performance of oil and gas companies, they note.