Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the meaning and consequences of the 14th package of EU sanctions in terms of measures against Russian LNG exports.
The global LNG market now has a near-zero balance of supply and demand, and the few new liquefaction capacities hardly cover the rapidly growing demand in Asia, Alexey Belogoryev says.
According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the ban on the re-export of Russian LNG through Europe will reduce Russia's revenues by about €2 billion per year."Therefore, there is simply nothing to replace Russian LNG in Europe yet," he explains. — Such an opportunity will appear, but not before the second half of 2025. The ban on re—exports, on the contrary, may even contribute to an increase in imports of Russian LNG - if transshipment is impossible, it will be easiest to sell it in Europe itself."
Gazprom will not be affected by this measure: LNG exports from Portovaya go mainly to Turkey and Greece and do not require transshipment, and the launch of the Ust-Luga LNG project is still far away, and transshipment in Europe is irrelevant for it, the expert notes. Novatek, in his opinion, will suffer if shipments from Yamal LNG decrease.
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications