What will the blockade of Russian oil in the English Channel lead to?

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Finance. Mail.ru on the possibility of blocking the passage of Russian oil tankers through the English Channel.

More than 40% of Russian oil exports pass through the English Channel — almost the entire volume coming from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Alexey Belogoryev said. According to him, theoretically, unlike the neck of the Danish Straits, they can be redirected to bypass the English Channel through the North Sea, but this is an additional cost of transportation.

"The threat of loss of any part of Russian exports is a stressful scenario for the global oil market, leading to a moderate price increase, at least in the short term. Not up to $ 200 per barrel, but up by $ 10-40 depending on the severity of the situation," Alexey Belogoryev predicts.

Much, in his opinion, will depend on how other OPEC+ countries behave in this case: whether they will take advantage of the moment to occupy the vacant market niche, or show solidarity with Russia, protecting the freedom of navigation that is vital for them. "There is no clear answer here," he said.

The rights of France and Great Britain are limited by the ability to require pilotage of vessels and carry out selective, but not total and systematic, inspections, if there are good reasons for this, mainly of an environmental nature.

"The same applies to the Danish Straits," the expert said.