Indian Oil has resumed purchases of Russian oil

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Business FM on the resumption of Russian oil purchases by India for delivery in December 2025:

— The same companies produce oil in Russia in the same volumes, Rosneft and Lukoil are two leading oil producing companies, they are also leading exporters. Their oil is exported. Maybe a little more of their oil will go to China in the coming months, a little less to India, but in general there will be no radical redistribution of supplies. It doesn't matter who the exporter is, it may be a real large oil company like Tatneft, or maybe a one-day company created a week ago. It is important here that the US Treasury Department does not formally have any reason to link this company to Lukoil or Rosneft. But there is no data yet to judge the dynamics of the discount, most likely, it will grow in the coming weeks and will be higher than before, throughout the winter, while the supply chains are being reconfigured. It's not just about who sells, but also about who participates, already in transportation, insurance, and so on. There were also subsidiaries of Lukoil or Rosneft, so there will be an increased discount, but most likely by February or March everything will have stabilized and will return to about the level that was before October. That's about $3-4 for an importer. If you add to this the cost of freight, insurance and other things, it will be the difference of 12 dollars between the price at the port of departure and the price at the port of delivery. Therefore, everything is happening as expected, the supply chains are being reconfigured, any companies associated with Rosneft or Lukoil are being withdrawn from them, replaced with intermediary companies, or sales are conducted through those Russian companies that have existed for a long time, including oil companies, but which are not yet under sanctions.

But even if all Russian companies get on the blocking list of the US Treasury, no one prevents the creation of new companies that will formally export this oil, formally transport it, and so on. It's a fight against windmills, officials never keep up with the market, and U.S. Treasury officials here are no more outstanding than in any other country. Five shipments is not a lot, it roughly corresponds to two days of standard Russian shipments. But this is only part of the visible picture, in fact, of course, there will be more parties. It is important to restore the contracting process itself. It was suspended for literally a week, which was more than expected, as it always happens when new significant sanctions are imposed, lawyers must analyze the risks and partially revise contracts. But in this case, it was necessary for Rosneft and Lukoil, their subsidiaries, to leave the supply chain. A week was probably enough to remove at least the main risks.