Gas at maximum: Russia redirects supplies

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the "Finance. Mail.ru " internet portal on the prospects for the Russian pipeline gas supply to China and other foreign markets.

The implementation of the Power of Siberia project has been slightly ahead of schedule for several years, the expert said.

"Even excluding LNG, China has become the largest buyer of Russian gas for decades since 2023. Previously, this role was played by Germany and Turkey. In 2024, it will account for about 26% of all Russian pipeline exports, in 2025 — approximately 32%," Alexey Belogoryev said.

"In the current conditions, Ukrainian transit has almost no alternative for the supply of Russian pipeline gas to Slovakia, Austria, the Czech Republic and Italy," the analyst explained.

Hungary has already switched entirely to the Turkish Stream since the end of 2023. According to the expert, it is possible, although quite difficult, to supply gas to Moldova through it, using the Trans—Balkan gas pipeline in reverse mode - until 2020 Gazprom exported gas through it to Turkey and the Balkans. Using Turkish transit to Hungary, both through Serbia and Romania, it is theoretically possible to supply some volumes of gas to Slovakia and Austria, but within 2-3 billion cubic meters per year.

"In other words, in the event of a complete shutdown of Ukrainian transit, Russian pipeline exports to Europe will decrease by at least 10-12 billion cubic meters per year to the level of 2024," Belogoryev noted.

According to his calculations, in the most favorable scenario, Russian gas supplies to Iran will amount to 10-15 billion cubic meters per year by 2030, in the basic scenario they will not begin at all.

"Access to other markets, beyond the specified geographical area, is possible only in the form of LNG exports," Belogoryev believes.