Gas without Ukraine: what alternatives to transit have been found in Europe

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the state of the European gas market in the context of the Ukrainian gas transit loss.

Alexey Belogoryev notes that since February 1, "supplies across the Bulgarian-Romanian border have increased quite significantly" (the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline), as well as through the Iasi—Ungheni gas pipeline (the border of Romania and Moldova). However, it is difficult to determine the origin of the gas based on the ENTSOG data. As Alexey Polishchuk, head of the second CIS Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, reported on February 3, Russia promptly proposed a new mechanism for humanitarian gas supplies in Transnistria, and then the European Union put forward its scheme.

"In both cases, it was about gas of Russian origin. However, both options were blocked by the Moldovan side for a long time," he told TASS.

According to the IEF estimates, in 2024, Russian gas supplies to the Turkish-Bulgarian border increased by 22% year-on-year, to a record 14.9 billion cubic meters. This already accounts for 95% of the nominal capacity of the European branch of the Turkish Stream and the Balkan Stream receiving gas from it. The total capacity of the Turkish Stream is 31.5 billion cubic meters, that is, 15.75 billion cubic meters per line.

In January, supplies via the Turkish Stream increased "to an unprecedented" 45,2 million cubic meters per day, or 1.4 billion cubic meters per month, which is 2% higher than in December and 26% higher than in January 2024, the IEF estimates.

"That is, Gazprom is already using this route at a level close to the maximum possible. It is possible to further increase supplies only by using the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline and the Romanian GTS in reverse mode and partially loading the second branch of the Turkish Stream for the European market, intended for the Turkish domestic market," Belogoryev concludes.

At the same time, unlike in 2022-2023, it is unlikely that the EU market is ready for a new reduction in demand, since the potential for this is almost exhausted, the IEF says. At the same time, gas prices "are not so exorbitant that people and companies are severely saving on heat and electricity." Therefore, the emerging need for additional pumping is another 19-27 billion cubic meters. Preparing for the next heating season "poses a serious challenge," which will primarily affect the level of spot prices.