Force majeure in the fuel market. Russia will have to buy Chinese gasoline

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave a detailed interview to the internet portal Novye Izvestia about the current situation in the Russian fuel market.

— The ban on gasoline exports has been extended until the end of the year. Previously, such a disciplinary measure worked, but now the usual "pill" does not help the fuel crisis. And it won't help?

— One can unequivocally answer that the ban on exports will not correct the situation. And today we are already hearing proposals from the Russian authorities to resume gasoline imports from neighboring countries.

In the current situation, it is necessary to honestly call a spade a spade. The crisis in the fuel market is not related to the fact that domestic oil refining is lagging behind the needs of the market. The reason is that we are not able to protect our refineries from attacks by Ukrainian drones.

And it is precisely this problem that is provoking the fuel crisis in Russia today and forcing to purchase gasoline from friendly countries.

The volume of supplies from China has not yet been discussed, but I assume that by the end of the year Russia will be forced to resort to fuel limited imports for domestic use. This measure will allow maintaining some semblance of price control in the fuel market and avoiding physical shortages.

— Prices will certainly continue to rise. When this happens in the fuel market, it is hardly possible to stop it. Now the task, first of all, is to avoid the physical deficit.

— This is data that is not public. As experts, we don't have them either. The estimates that have now begun to appear from Western colleagues indicate some very serious losses. Up to 40% of Russian oil refining is damaged, decommissioned or limited in operation to one degree or another.

In August, it was said about 20%. It seems to me that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.