Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the consequences of drone attacks on Russian refineries to the business publication Profile.
According to Alexey Gromov, as a result of "sudden accidents", from 10 to 15% of the existing refining capacities were put out of operation.
As for gasoline, the volume of its consumption in Russia is about 38 million tons, and the capacity of domestic refineries (including exports) only slightly exceeds this figure."Emergency shutdowns of a number of Russian refineries have led to a slight reduction in Russian exports of diesel fuel and an increase in world prices for petroleum products," the interlocutor of Profile says.
Several factors helped to stop the negative consequences of disabling part of the production facilities at once. Firstly, the capacity of refineries is never 100% loaded – this would create a high risk of accidents and overloading of systems. The load rate of refineries in the world is from 80 to 90%, Alexey Gromov explained. Russian enterprises are 85% loaded, up to a maximum of 90%. Therefore, losses associated with unplanned retirement of capacities can be quickly compensated by reloading unused equipment from other industries.
Secondly, back in February, the Russian government imposed a six–month moratorium on gasoline exports - it will be in effect from March 1 to August 31, 2024.
If the factories are repaired quickly, and no new strikes follow, we believe that the difficulties are over. But if the repair is delayed, and production facilities continue to fail, then the risks may take on a structural nature, Alexey Gromov warns.
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